“Local security officials suddenly fell ill with” bear disease “
Units of the Russian military contingent of the CSTO were deployed to Kazakhstan, where they began to carry out stabilization tasks. In addition to the Russian military, parts of Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are also sent there. The decision to provide assistance was made after the appeal of President Tokayev. However, not all experts agree with the decision to send CSTO military units to Kazakhstan, considering it politically unjustified.
A Russian source in political circles specializing in the region, who wished to remain anonymous, said in an interview with MK that he did not agree with this state of affairs, when “its neighbors should be responsible for the failure of the elites of one of the CSTO countries”. But let's make a reservation right away: our interlocutor, expressing his point of view, does not touch upon the aspect of possible losses for Russia in the event of a “spontaneous” change of power in Kazakhstan to the rule of radicals and nationalists. Obviously, the Russian leadership carefully weighed all the potential risks, deciding to launch a mechanism for CSTO assistance to Kazakhstan.
– Kazakhstan has its own special services, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, internal troops and the army, which at the decisive moment are unable to do anything, – the expert explains his position. – It turns out that the state of Kazakhstan has been feeding its security officials in the last 30 years, and at the right time, for some reason, they all fell ill with the “bear disease” and were unable to do anything? And now, based on their inconsistency, a decision is made to introduce CSTO forces.
But what does the CSTO have to do with it? Of course, there is no terrorism. This is a common confrontation between clans, the struggle against which in the country should be waged by the existing for this purpose its own power structures. But I understand that in all these structures there is now a double loyalty – at the very top there are people loyal to the previous leader of the country (Nazarbayev – MK). No one has canceled the post of national leader there. And therefore, everything that is happening now, I can only understand as an attempt by the current President Tokayev to rely on the armed forces, let's say – the apparatus of violence. Only not on your own national, but on the external, in the person of the CSTO.
In this regard, the expert considers the introduction of the CSTO forces into Kazakhstan as an erroneous decision, recalling that in this case there is a kind of revival of the Brezhnev doctrine of limited sovereignty. Moreover, even if not only Russia is involved in this event, but also, in his words, “some Armenian platoon and a Belarusian company”, only Russia will have to pay for the possible troubles.
“It's like in good biblical parables,” the expert explains. – Never get involved in a fight between two people. They will eventually make up, and you remain guilty. And in this situation, the Russians who live in the Russian-speaking regions of Kazakhstan will be guilty. Until recently, they were very loyal to Nazarbayev. It’s not at all because they have great love for him. They simply understand that everything can be much worse, since everyone has before their eyes the example of Ukraine with its uncontrollable nationalists. And who is participating in the Kazakhstani events? Mostly nationalistic unemployed youth. In fact, people who have nothing to lose. So if you are already bringing troops there, then at least think about the further fate of the Russian population in this country. I have a very bad feeling about this. I think it will come back to haunt later …
For example, the CSTO troops are being brought in and it is declared that they will guard strategic objects in Kazakhstan. At the same time, servicemen of the Kazakh army are released in order to restore order together with local security officials. But then why are special forces units sent to Kazakhstan? Mystery. If you call the presence of the CSTO forces there peacekeeping, then why are you sending there not the 15th brigade, which specializes specifically in peacekeeping? In short, here is still a question on a question.
Speaking that the events in Kazakhstan are an internal situation, the expert nevertheless admits:
– Of course, not a single “Maidan” just happens. Someone always prepares and organizes it, although some spontaneous performances immediately appear around.
But I believe that the family of the former leader is behind the events in Alma-Ata. Still, we saw videos of a car arriving and distributing weapons to the protesters. This, excuse me, is not only one working farmer, or a shepherd who has descended from the mountains cannot organize. It is clear that there is some organization behind this. But as a result, it turns out that the new and old power clans are sorting out the relationship, and, excuse me, should the Russian army and the CSTO members provide them with “trousers support”? I am not ready to agree with this statement of the question.