Political scientists disagreed on the fate of the refugees
For more than a week, thousands of migrants remain at the Belarusian-Polish border, trying to enter Poland. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says that he would be happy to send all illegal immigrants back to the countries of the Middle East, but, they say, they do not want that. So far, there are three options for the development of events: migrants will return back to the countries of origin, they will be taken away by the authorities of Germany or other EU countries, or they will remain in Minsk. MK talked about this with political scientists.
It seemed that the call to the acting was supposed to help in resolving the crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But, according to the latter, it is not so easy. Migrants are not going to leave their positions, despite the difficult conditions. With the onset of cold weather, only about 200 people agreed to return home. To evacuate these citizens, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry will send a plane to Belarus on November 18. Of course, compared to the total number of people, these figures are a drop in the ocean.
On Tuesday, migrants made an organized attempt to break through the border, but the Polish authorities used water cannons and sprayed tear gas. It would be life-threatening to remain in damp clothes in mid-November on the street, so the Belarusian authorities offered people to stay in a logistics center near the checkpoint. Only 850 people out of 1200 accepted the offer. The rest remained in the spontaneous camp and continued their attempts to get into Poland, albeit unsuccessfully. Until now, the main question remains: where will these people eventually go?
In a conversation with MK, Belarusian experts agreed that the path to Europe for illegal immigrants is closed. And this despite the fact that the Munich authorities asked for permission from the federal government to host them. The point is that Europe will not create a dangerous precedent when migrants can, bypassing legal means, go to storm and receive political asylum.
“As soon as all these people are no longer needed by Lukashenka, they will be loaded onto airplanes and sent back. Nobody will be interested in the opinion of migrants. In any case, Lukashenka will have to somehow solve it. How long can you turn Belarus into a transit camp for refugees? As for Europe, there is a clear position that these people can apply for political asylum, but only through official checkpoints and embassies, and not at the border. It is clear that if Europe allows to cross the border in this way, it will create a bad precedent that this can be done, “political analyst Vadim Mozheiko told MK.
On the other hand, the editor-in-chief of Baltnews, Andrei Starikov, believes that migrants will not return to their countries of origin under any pretext. “The most working scenario is for Germany, which has already acted as a mediator in the negotiations, to accept this small number of refugees on its territory. Berlin's task is to take some pressure to take a negotiating mandate from the Poles and, with the help of Moscow's mediation, agree that Poland would create a transit corridor to Germany. There, they will be manipulated in accordance with European standards to verify their status and grant political asylum. For its part, Belarus is closing air flights to the countries of origin of these migrants, which is already beginning to take shape. This is the only roadmap that, given the will of Berlin and Moscow, will help to resolve the situation, “Starikov said.
In his opinion, such a development of events may occur before the beginning of the new year. He is sure that people will not return to their homeland, because they fled the war, and there their lives could be in danger. But they will not stay in Minsk either. The legislation of Belarus allows them to stay on the territory of the state for only 30 days. But this rule does not work in the neutral zone, which means that migrants will be able to demand from Poland and Lithuania to let them into their territory for a long time.